Sampdoria 1-2 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salernitana make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Sampdoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 April 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Sampdoria (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salernitana's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Salernitana have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sampdoria lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Sampdoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 57% versus Salernitana 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 67% | Salernitana 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.90 xG and Salernitana 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.015 / defence 1.294 | Salernitana attack 0.665 / defence 1.768. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.240. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.768 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Sampdoria games / 30 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 56% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 20%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Salernitana 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sampdoria (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 70% | Salernitana 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 56% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Sampdoria 1.90 / Salernitana 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.015 / def 1.294 | Salernitana attack 0.665 / def 1.768 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Salernitana xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Salernitana kick off?
Sampdoria vs Salernitana kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Salernitana?
Sampdoria 1 - 2 Salernitana.
Where is Sampdoria vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Salernitana part of?
Sampdoria vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 56% chance of winning, Salernitana a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sampdoria and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Salernitana?
Record (1 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 0 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Sampdoria and Salernitana in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Salernitana (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sampdoria's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.67x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 32/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
56%
1.80
25%
4.06
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.97
1.07
Salernitana xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
15%
6.68
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
3%
33.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.07 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Salernitana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 8W 4D 18L from 30 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Salernitana, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 20L across 30 games — 0.53 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sampdoria by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 4W 3D 8L from 15 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salernitana's away record stands at 2W 2D 11L across 15 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.77 scored and 2.27 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
Salernitana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 8W 4D 18L in their last 30 games (0.93 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 3W 7D 20L in their last 30 (0.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Salernitana away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.00 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sampdoria have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Salernitana won 4-0 on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
1
Draws
3
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Salernitana?
From 7 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 3, Salernitana have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 15 June 2025, when Sampdoria 2-0 Salernitana.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 73%, Salernitana 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Sampdoria and 67% for Salernitana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Salernitana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Sampdoria's games and 53% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Sampdoria's matches and 67% of Salernitana's.
Do Sampdoria and Salernitana tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Sampdoria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Sampdoria 1-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.90 xG and Salernitana 1.07 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Salernitana outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.01 / defence 1.29 against Salernitana attack 0.67 / defence 1.77, drawn from 32/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 56% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 20%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Salernitana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 67%, Salernitana 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Salernitana's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sampdoria arrived the stronger side — 0.93 PPG against 0.53. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.