Venezia 1-3 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Venezia and Atalanta meet at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 games at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atalanta (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Atalanta away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Venezia, 0.80 for Atalanta — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Venezia, 1 for Atalanta and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2021, ended 0–4 with Atalanta winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 56% versus Atalanta 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 47% | Atalanta 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.77 xG and Atalanta 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.740 / defence 1.599 | Atalanta attack 0.926 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.247. Venezia's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Venezia games / 32 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 14% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 62%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 7.14 | Draw 4.17 | Atalanta 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 70% | Atalanta 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 14% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Venezia 0.77 / Atalanta 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.740 / def 1.599 | Atalanta attack 0.926 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Atalanta xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Atalanta kick off?
Venezia vs Atalanta kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Atalanta?
Venezia 1 - 3 Atalanta.
Where is Venezia vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Atalanta part of?
Venezia vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 14% chance of winning, Atalanta a 62% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Venezia and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Atalanta?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 0 | Atalanta 1W.
What form are Venezia and Atalanta in?
Venezia (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Atalanta (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.74x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (0.93x) against Venezia's defence (1.60x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
14%
7.17
24%
4.13
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.62
1.85
Atalanta xG
7.17
14%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
2%
45.41
29%
3.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Venezia and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Venezia and 1.85 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia come into this having played 32 games, going 5W 7D 20L for 0.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.59 PPG from 32 outings (14W 9D 9L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Venezia's home form reads 2W 4D 10L across 16 games on their own ground, a 0.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 2.06 points per game from 16 outings (10W 3D 3L). That's actually stronger than their 1.59 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.69 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Atalanta
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 5W 7D 20L in their last 32 games (0.69 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 14W 9D 9L in their last 32 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.62 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Venezia or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Atalanta in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Venezia
1
Draws
3
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Atalanta?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 0, Atalanta have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Atalanta 0-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 69%, Atalanta 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Venezia) and 56% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Atalanta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Venezia's games and 56% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Venezia's recent games and 56% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Atalanta tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Venezia 1-3 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.77 xG and Atalanta 1.85 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Atalanta outscored their 1.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.74 / defence 1.60 against Atalanta attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 14% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 62%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 47%, Atalanta 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.69. Form held, and they took the win. Venezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.