Salernitana 2-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salernitana at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Arechi to face Salernitana in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Salernitana have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana's home record at Stadio Arechi: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cremonese's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Salernitana's favour (1.50 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Salernitana have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cremonese in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Salernitana — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cremonese — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 52% versus Cremonese 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 58% | Cremonese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.72 xG and Cremonese 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 1.023 / defence 1.063 | Cremonese attack 0.914 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.190. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Salernitana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Salernitana games / 12 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 49% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 24%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Cremonese 4.17. Salernitana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salernitana are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salernitana if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 60% | Cremonese 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 49% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Salernitana 1.72 / Cremonese 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 1.023 / def 1.063 | Cremonese attack 0.914 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Cremonese xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Cremonese kick off?
Salernitana vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Cremonese?
Salernitana 2 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Salernitana vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Cremonese part of?
Salernitana vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 49% chance of winning, Cremonese a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Salernitana and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salernitana and Cremonese in?
Salernitana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Cremonese (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 1.02x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.91x) against Salernitana's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.82
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.88
1.16
Cremonese xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
4%
22.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.16 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salernitana's recent record stands at 11W 14D 25L from 50 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 16L across 50 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Salernitana have managed 6W 7D 12L from 25 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 9W 6D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salernitana are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.32 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 11W 14D 25L in their last 50 games (0.94 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 20W 14D 16L in their last 50 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.00 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Salernitana
1
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 1, Cremonese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Salernitana 1-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 48%, Cremonese 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Salernitana) and 52% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Salernitana's recent matches and 60% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Salernitana's matches and 52% of Cremonese's.
Do Salernitana and Cremonese tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salernitana and Cremonese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 13, as Salernitana and Cremonese drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.72 xG and Cremonese 1.16 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Cremonese attack 0.91 / defence 1.24, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 49% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 24%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 58%, Cremonese 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.