Fiorentina 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as Fiorentina welcome Empoli to Stadio Artemio Franchi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Empoli have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Empoli — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 1, Empoli 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Empoli trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 53% versus Empoli 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 53% | Empoli 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.22 xG and Empoli 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.928 / defence 1.114 | Empoli attack 0.896 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.180. Data: 60 Fiorentina games / 60 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 37% | Draw 28% | Empoli 35%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Empoli 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Empoli (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 60% | Empoli 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 37% | Draw 28% | Empoli 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Fiorentina 1.22 / Empoli 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.928 / def 1.114 | Empoli attack 0.896 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Empoli xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Empoli kick off?
Fiorentina vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Fiorentina 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Fiorentina vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Empoli part of?
Fiorentina vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 37% chance of winning, Empoli a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fiorentina and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Empoli?
Record (3 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 1 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Empoli in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fiorentina's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
37%
2.70
28%
3.61
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.39
1.18
Empoli xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.18 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina come into this having played 60 games, going 25W 11D 24L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.13 PPG from 60 outings (16W 20D 24L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.43 PPG, Empoli on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fiorentina's home form reads 17W 5D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.17 points per game from 30 outings (8W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.18 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Empoli in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 25W 11D 24L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Empoli have gone 16W 20D 24L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Empoli away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.87 PPG; Empoli away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Empoli runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fiorentina's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
4
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 2, Empoli have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 47%, Empoli 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Fiorentina) and 33% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Empoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 47% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Fiorentina's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Empoli tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Empoli in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 23, as Fiorentina and Empoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.22 xG and Empoli 1.18 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Empoli attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 37% | Draw 28% | Empoli 35%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 53%, Empoli 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.43 PPG, Empoli 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.