Torino 2-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Torino at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torino vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino to take on Torino. The game is scheduled for Monday 20 February 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Torino — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Torino are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Torino, 0 for Cremonese and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Torino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Torino in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cremonese in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 52% versus Cremonese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 40% | Cremonese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.32 xG and Cremonese 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.809 / defence 0.813 | Cremonese attack 0.729 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.179. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Torino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Torino games / 22 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 52% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 20%. Fair-value odds: Torino 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Cremonese 5.00. Torino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Torino 30% | Cremonese 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Monday 20 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 52% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Torino 1.32 / Cremonese 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.809 / def 0.813 | Cremonese attack 0.729 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Torino (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Cremonese xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Cremonese kick off?
Torino vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 20 February 2023 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Cremonese?
Torino 2 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Torino vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Cremonese part of?
Torino vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 52% chance of winning, Cremonese a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Torino and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Torino 1W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Torino and Cremonese in?
Torino (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Cremonese (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Torino's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.50
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Torino xG
Total xG
2.02
0.70
Cremonese xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
5%
19.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Torino and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Torino and 0.70 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Torino have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 21W 17D 22L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese's form line: 20W 17D 23L from 60 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Torino on 1.33 PPG, Cremonese on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.52 PPG from 29 outings (12W 8D 9L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 9W 8D 12L from 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Torino are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 20W 17D 23L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Cremonese away?
Torino's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.52 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Torino and Cremonese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Torino's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Torino
2
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Torino have won 2, Cremonese have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Cremonese 0-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Cremonese?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 48%, Cremonese 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Torino) and 52% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 28% of games; Cremonese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Torino's recent matches and 59% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Torino's recent games and 52% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Cremonese tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Torino and Cremonese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 23, as Torino and Cremonese drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.32 xG and Cremonese 0.70 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.81 / defence 0.81 against Cremonese attack 0.73 / defence 1.28, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 52% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 20%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 40%, Cremonese 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.33 PPG, Cremonese 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Torino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.