Juventus 1-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fiorentina make the trip to Allianz Stadium to face Juventus in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 February 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Juventus (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Stadium, Juventus have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fiorentina have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Juventus. A 0.80 PPG lead over Fiorentina (2.20 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juventus lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 44% versus Fiorentina 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 37% | Fiorentina 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.58 xG and Fiorentina 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.234 / defence 0.907 | Fiorentina attack 0.855 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.203. Data: 59 Juventus games / 59 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 53% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 22%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Fiorentina 4.55. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 30% | Fiorentina 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 53% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Juventus 1.58 / Fiorentina 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.234 / def 0.907 | Fiorentina attack 0.855 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Juventus (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Fiorentina xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Fiorentina kick off?
Juventus vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Juventus 1 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Juventus vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Fiorentina part of?
Juventus vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 53% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Juventus and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Fiorentina?
Record (3 meetings): Juventus 1W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Juventus and Fiorentina in?
Juventus (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juventus's attack rating (1.23) and Fiorentina's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.85x) against Juventus's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
53%
1.90
25%
3.97
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.51
0.93
Fiorentina xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
5%
21.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Juventus and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Juventus and 0.93 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Juventus have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 32W 15D 12L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina's form line: 25W 11D 23L from 59 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fiorentina.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Juventus have posted 2.03 PPG from 29 outings (17W 8D 4L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 8W 6D 15L from 29 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventus are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.39 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 32W 15D 12L in their last 59 games (1.88 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 25W 11D 23L in their last 59 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Fiorentina away?
Juventus's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.03 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Juventus or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
3
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Fiorentina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Juventus 0-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Fiorentina?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 66% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 38%, Fiorentina 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Juventus) and 48% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Fiorentina in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Juventus's recent matches and 62% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Juventus's recent games and 48% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Fiorentina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.58 xG and Fiorentina 0.93 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.23 / defence 0.91 against Fiorentina attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 53% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 22%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 37%, Fiorentina 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fiorentina's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.