Sampdoria 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bologna (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sampdoria face Bologna.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sampdoria have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 0W 3D 7L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bologna are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sampdoria lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Bologna — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 45% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 52% | Bologna 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 0.83 xG and Bologna 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.546 / defence 1.023 | Bologna attack 1.080 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.163. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.546 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Sampdoria games / 60 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 24% | Draw 29% | Bologna 47%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Bologna 2.13. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 20% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 24% | Draw 29% | Bologna 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Sampdoria 0.83 / Bologna 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.546 / def 1.023 | Bologna attack 1.080 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Bologna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bologna xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Bologna kick off?
Sampdoria vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Bologna?
Sampdoria 1 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Sampdoria vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Bologna part of?
Sampdoria vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 24% chance of winning, Bologna a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sampdoria and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Bologna?
Record (3 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 1 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Sampdoria and Bologna in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Bologna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.55x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.08x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
24%
4.13
29%
3.47
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.12
1.28
Bologna xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
7%
14.94
20%
4.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 15.4 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.28 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 12W 11D 37L from 60 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 25L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 6W 6D 17L from 29 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 7W 7D 15L across 29 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.20 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Bologna in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 12W 11D 37L in their last 60 games (0.78 PPG), while Bologna have gone 20W 15D 25L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.83 PPG; Bologna away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
1
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Bologna?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Bologna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Sampdoria 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 52%, Bologna 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sampdoria) and 62% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 38% of games; Bologna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sampdoria's games and 59% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Sampdoria's matches and 62% of Bologna's.
Do Sampdoria and Bologna tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Bologna in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Sampdoria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Sampdoria 1-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.83 xG and Bologna 1.28 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.55 / defence 1.02 against Bologna attack 1.08 / defence 1.17, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 24% | Draw 29% | Bologna 47%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 52%, Bologna 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.