Empoli 2-2 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Empoli at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Carlo Castellani plays host to Empoli versus Spezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 11 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Empoli (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's home record at Stadio Carlo Castellani: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Spezia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Spezia have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Empoli's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Empoli 0W, Spezia 1W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Spezia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 58% versus Spezia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 46% | Spezia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.31 xG and Spezia 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.914 / defence 0.968 | Spezia attack 0.746 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.186. Data: 59 Empoli games / 59 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 47% | Draw 28% | Spezia 24%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Spezia 4.17. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 40% | Spezia 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 47% | Draw 28% | Spezia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Empoli 1.31 / Spezia 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.914 / def 0.968 | Spezia attack 0.746 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Empoli (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Spezia xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Spezia kick off?
Empoli vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Spezia?
Empoli 2 - 2 Spezia.
Where is Empoli vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Spezia part of?
Empoli vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 47% chance of winning, Spezia a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Empoli and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Spezia?
Record (3 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 2 | Spezia 1W.
What form are Empoli and Spezia in?
Empoli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Spezia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.91) and Spezia's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.75x) against Empoli's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.53
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.17
0.86
Spezia xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
7%
15.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Empoli and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Empoli and 0.86 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli's recent record stands at 16W 19D 24L from 59 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 33L across 59 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Empoli against 0.92 for Spezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 8W 8D 13L from 29 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spezia's away record stands at 7W 3D 19L across 29 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.98 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Spezia in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 16W 19D 24L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Spezia have gone 14W 12D 33L in their last 59 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Spezia away?
Empoli's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.10 PPG; Spezia away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Empoli
5
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Spezia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Spezia 1-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 69%, Spezia 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Empoli) and 59% (Spezia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spezia in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Spezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Empoli's games and 45% of Spezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Empoli's matches and 59% of Spezia's.
Do Empoli and Spezia tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Spezia in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Spezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Spezia finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.31 xG and Spezia 0.86 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Spezia outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Spezia attack 0.75 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 47% | Draw 28% | Spezia 24%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 46%, Spezia 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.14 PPG, Spezia 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.