AS Roma 1-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as AS Roma welcome Hellas Verona to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Hellas Verona have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AS Roma at 1.60 PPG versus Hellas Verona's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AS Roma, 1 for Hellas Verona and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 48% versus Hellas Verona 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 45% | Hellas Verona 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.39 xG and Hellas Verona 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.034 / defence 0.669 | Hellas Verona attack 0.806 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.186. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.669 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 AS Roma games / 60 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 55% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 17%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Hellas Verona 5.88. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Hellas Verona's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 20% | Hellas Verona 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 55% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 35% | xG AS Roma 1.39 / Hellas Verona 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.034 / def 0.669 | Hellas Verona attack 0.806 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Hellas Verona xG
35%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Hellas Verona kick off?
AS Roma vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is AS Roma vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Hellas Verona part of?
AS Roma vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 55% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both AS Roma and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Hellas Verona?
Record (3 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 1 | Hellas Verona 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Hellas Verona in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
55%
1.82
28%
3.60
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.02
0.64
Hellas Verona xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
29%
3.44
4%
23.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.64 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 60 games, going 30W 14D 16L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 1.17 PPG from 60 outings (18W 16D 26L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 16W 7D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.93 points per game from 29 outings (5W 12D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.42 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona in 70%.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 30W 14D 16L in their last 60 games (1.73 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 18W 16D 26L in their last 60 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Hellas Verona away?
AS Roma's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.90 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.93 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
AS Roma's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AS Roma
1
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 6, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Hellas Verona?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 34%, Hellas Verona 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (AS Roma) and 45% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Hellas Verona in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of AS Roma's recent matches and 72% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of AS Roma's recent games and 45% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Hellas Verona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Hellas Verona 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.39 xG and Hellas Verona 0.64 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.03 / defence 0.67 against Hellas Verona attack 0.81 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 55% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 17%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 45%, Hellas Verona 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.