Cremonese 3-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cremonese at 43%, yet the head-to-head data favours Pisa — this Cremonese vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Pisa travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese in Serie A (matchday 36). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cremonese stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Cremonese have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Pisa — last 10 games: 1W 0D 9L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 0.40 PPG, Pisa 0.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Pisa have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Cremonese.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2025, ended Cremonese 0–1 Pisa — a Pisa win.
Pisa have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pisa trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 56% versus Pisa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Pisa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.28 xG and Pisa 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.656 / defence 1.316 | Pisa attack 0.683 / defence 1.591. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.106. Cremonese's attack rating of 0.656 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.28. Pisa's defence rating of 1.591 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cremonese's projected output up. Pisa's attack rating of 0.683 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Cremonese's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pisa's projected output up. Data: built from Cremonese's last 35 games and Pisa's last 35.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 43% | Draw 29% | Pisa 29%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.34 | Draw 3.49 | Pisa 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cremonese 40% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 36 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 43% | Draw 29% | Pisa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Cremonese 1.28 / Pisa 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.656 / def 1.316 | Pisa attack 0.683 / def 1.591 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Pisa xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Pisa kick off?
Cremonese vs Pisa kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Cremonese 3 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Cremonese vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Pisa part of?
Cremonese vs Pisa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 43% chance of winning, Pisa a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cremonese and Pisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Cremonese vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.66x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 35 games and Pisa's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.49
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.27
0.99
Pisa xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.99 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 22W 24D 27L from 73 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 24W 20D 29L across 73 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.23 PPG, Pisa on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 9W 16D 11L from their last 36 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 9W 12D 15L across their last 36 away games, a 1.08 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.19 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
Cremonese (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 22W 24D 27L in their last 73 games (1.23 PPG), while Pisa have gone 24W 20D 29L in their last 73 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Pisa away?
Cremonese's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.19 PPG; Pisa away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won Pisa 3-0 Cremonese.
Cremonese's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cremonese
2
Draws
5
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 2, Pisa have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Pisa 3-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 64%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 53% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Pisa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Cremonese's games and 50% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cremonese and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 53% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Pisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Cremonese's recent matches and 75% of Pisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cremonese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Pisa 3-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.28 xG and Pisa 0.99 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.66 / defence 1.32 against Pisa attack 0.68 / defence 1.59, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 43% | Draw 29% | Pisa 29%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Pisa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.23 PPG, Pisa 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie A fixtures — matchday 36
All Serie A fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →