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Poisson rates Udinese at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Cremonese encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Udinese and Cremonese meet at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Udinese's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udinese have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli this season.

Cremonese (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Cremonese have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. Udinese's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Cremonese's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Udinese have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cremonese in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Udinese 1W, Cremonese 0W, 2D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Udinese — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Cremonese — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 50% versus Cremonese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 49% | Cremonese 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.43 xG and Cremonese 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.878 / defence 0.854 | Cremonese attack 0.653 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.145. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Udinese games / 36 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Udinese 56% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 17%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Cremonese 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 30% | Cremonese 20% BTTS from recent games.

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