Cremonese 1-2 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lazio (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cremonese face Lazio.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Lazio at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 4 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Lazio away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lazio — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cremonese's 30% rate and Lazio's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cremonese, 2 for Lazio and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lazio in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 56% versus Lazio 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 51% | Lazio 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.55 xG and Lazio 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.621 / defence 1.261 | Lazio attack 0.874 / defence 0.722. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.105. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.621 is below the league average — the 0.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lazio's defence strength of 0.722 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Cremonese games / 72 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 16% | Draw 31% | Lazio 52%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 6.25 | Draw 3.23 | Lazio 1.92. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Cremonese's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 30% | Lazio 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Monday 4 May 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 16% | Draw 31% | Lazio 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 30% | xG Cremonese 0.55 / Lazio 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.621 / def 1.261 | Lazio attack 0.874 / def 0.722 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Lazio (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.55
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Lazio xG
30%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Lazio kick off?
Cremonese vs Lazio kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 4 May 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Lazio?
Cremonese 1 - 2 Lazio.
Where is Cremonese vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Lazio part of?
Cremonese vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 16% chance of winning, Lazio a 52% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Cremonese and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Lazio?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 1 | Lazio 2W.
What form are Cremonese and Lazio in?
Cremonese (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Lazio (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Lazio's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.55. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 19.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (18.5%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
16%
6.10
31%
3.18
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.55
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.77
1.22
Lazio xG
6.10
16%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.29
70%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
58%
1.74
Win to Nil
5%
20.62
30%
3.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 20.7 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 0.55 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.22 for Lazio, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 72 games, going 22W 24D 26L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.57 PPG from 72 outings (30W 23D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.25 PPG, Lazio on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 9W 16D 10L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 1.60 points per game from 35 outings (16W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.36 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Lazio in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 22W 24D 26L in their last 72 games (1.25 PPG), while Lazio have gone 30W 23D 19L in their last 72 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.23 PPG; Lazio away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lazio in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Lazio won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
1
Draws
3
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Lazio?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Lazio have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Cremonese 1-2 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lazio see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 63%, Lazio 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cremonese) and 34% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Lazio in 46%; Cremonese have failed to score in 26% of games; Lazio in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Cremonese's recent matches and 29% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cremonese's recent games and 34% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Lazio tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lazio in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Cremonese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Cremonese 1-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.55 xG and Lazio 1.22 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.62 / defence 1.26 against Lazio attack 0.87 / defence 0.72, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 16% | Draw 31% | Lazio 52%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 51%, Lazio 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.25 PPG, Lazio 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.