Cagliari 1-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Fiorentina meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 January 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fiorentina (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Fiorentina arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cagliari lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 57% versus Fiorentina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cagliari 57% | Fiorentina 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.34 xG and Fiorentina 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.862 / defence 1.364 | Fiorentina attack 0.656 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.519. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Cagliari games / 21 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 35% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 36%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Fiorentina 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 80% | Fiorentina 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 35% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Cagliari 1.34 / Fiorentina 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.862 / def 1.364 | Fiorentina attack 0.656 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Fiorentina xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Fiorentina kick off?
Cagliari vs Fiorentina kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Cagliari vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Fiorentina part of?
Cagliari vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 35% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cagliari and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
Record (1 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Cagliari and Fiorentina in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.86) and Fiorentina's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.66x) against Cagliari's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.52
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.70
1.36
Fiorentina xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.36 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cagliari come into this having played 21 games, going 3W 6D 12L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (11W 2D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cagliari's home form reads 2W 3D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.30 points per game from 10 outings (4W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cagliari are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.90 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 3W 6D 12L in their last 21 games (0.71 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 11W 2D 8L in their last 21 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 0.90 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cagliari
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fiorentina 1-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Cagliari, 50% for Fiorentina — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Cagliari) and 50% (Fiorentina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Cagliari's games and 50% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cagliari's matches and 50% of Fiorentina's.
Do Cagliari and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 23, as Cagliari and Fiorentina drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.34 xG and Fiorentina 1.36 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.86 / defence 1.36 against Fiorentina attack 0.66 / defence 1.34, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 35% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 36%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 57%, Fiorentina 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.