Fiorentina 6-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Genoa travel to Stadio Artemio Franchi to take on Fiorentina. The game is scheduled for Monday 17 January 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fiorentina stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's home record at Stadio Artemio Franchi: 6W 1D 2L from 9 Serie A appearances (2.11 PPG). They are averaging 2.56 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Genoa — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Fiorentina are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fiorentina register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Genoa in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fiorentina, 0 for Genoa and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Genoa in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fiorentina 60% and Genoa 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fiorentina 75% | Genoa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 2.33 xG and Genoa 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.499 / defence 1.044 | Genoa attack 0.634 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.559. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.499 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Fiorentina games / 21 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 66% | Draw 19% | Genoa 15%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Genoa 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 67% | Genoa 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Monday 17 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 66% | Draw 19% | Genoa 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 58% | xG Fiorentina 2.33 / Genoa 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.499 / def 1.044 | Genoa attack 0.634 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.559 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Genoa xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Genoa kick off?
Fiorentina vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 17 January 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Fiorentina 6 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Fiorentina vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Genoa part of?
Fiorentina vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 66% chance of winning, Genoa a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fiorentina and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 0 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Genoa in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Genoa (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.50) and Genoa's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
66%
1.51
19%
5.27
15%
6.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.36
1.03
Genoa xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
6.67
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
10%
10.27
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
1%
68.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.03 for Genoa, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 10W 2D 8L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa's form line: 1W 9D 10L from 20 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fiorentina are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 2.11 PPG from 9 outings (6W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Genoa have gone 0W 5D 4L from 9 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Genoa in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Genoa in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 10W 2D 8L in their last 20 games (1.60 PPG), while Genoa have gone 1W 9D 10L in their last 20 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Genoa away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.11 PPG; Genoa away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Genoa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2022, when Fiorentina won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Genoa?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fiorentina at 67%, Genoa at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Fiorentina and 44% for Genoa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Genoa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fiorentina's games and 67% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Fiorentina's matches and 44% of Genoa's.
Do Fiorentina and Genoa tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Genoa in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Genoa 6-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 2.33 xG and Genoa 1.03 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genoa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.50 / defence 1.04 against Genoa attack 0.63 / defence 1.35, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 66% | Draw 19% | Genoa 15%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 75%, Genoa 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Genoa's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.