Genoa 0-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Udinese at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Udinese — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Udinese are 0.60 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Genoa have won 0, Udinese 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Udinese trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 55% versus Udinese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 55% | Udinese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.94 xG and Udinese 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.587 / defence 1.158 | Udinese attack 0.887 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.548. Genoa's attack strength of 0.587 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Genoa games / 20 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 22% | Draw 26% | Udinese 52%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Udinese 1.92. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 50% | Udinese 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 22% | Draw 26% | Udinese 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Genoa 0.94 / Udinese 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.587 / def 1.158 | Udinese attack 0.887 / def 1.358 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: Udinese (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Udinese xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Udinese kick off?
Genoa vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Udinese?
Genoa 0 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Genoa vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Udinese part of?
Genoa vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 22% chance of winning, Udinese a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Genoa and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Udinese?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 1 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Genoa and Udinese in?
Genoa (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Genoa's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
22%
4.59
26%
3.85
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.53
1.59
Udinese xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
4%
22.55
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.7 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Genoa and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Genoa and 1.59 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa come into this having played 20 games, going 1W 9D 10L for 0.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.00 PPG from 20 outings (4W 8D 8L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Genoa's home form reads 0W 4D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Udinese in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 1W 9D 10L in their last 20 games (0.60 PPG), while Udinese have gone 4W 8D 8L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 0.44 PPG; Udinese away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genoa's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Genoa
3
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 4, Udinese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Udinese?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 44%, Udinese 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Genoa) and 56% (Udinese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 56% of games; Udinese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Genoa's recent matches and 56% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Genoa's matches and 56% of Udinese's.
Do Genoa and Udinese tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Udinese in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genoa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Udinese finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.94 xG and Udinese 1.59 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genoa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Udinese landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.59 / defence 1.16 against Udinese attack 0.89 / defence 1.36, drawn from 22/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 22% | Draw 26% | Udinese 52%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 55%, Udinese 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Udinese arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.