Spezia 1-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Sampdoria at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 January 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Spezia) versus 1.10 (Sampdoria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Spezia, 1 for Sampdoria and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Sampdoria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spezia 59% and Sampdoria 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Spezia 59% | Sampdoria 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.13 xG and Sampdoria 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.794 / defence 1.077 | Sampdoria attack 0.788 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.515. Spezia's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Spezia games / 22 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 31% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 39%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Sampdoria 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 70% | Sampdoria 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 31% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Spezia 1.13 / Sampdoria 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.794 / def 1.077 | Sampdoria attack 0.788 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Sampdoria xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Sampdoria kick off?
Spezia vs Sampdoria kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Spezia 1 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Spezia vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Sampdoria part of?
Spezia vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 31% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Spezia and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sampdoria?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Spezia and Sampdoria in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.79x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
31%
3.24
31%
3.27
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.42
1.29
Sampdoria xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
9%
11.72
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Spezia and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Spezia and 1.29 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Spezia have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 4D 12L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria's form line: 5W 5D 12L from 22 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.00 PPG, Sampdoria on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spezia have posted 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.32 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 6W 4D 12L in their last 22 games (1.00 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 5W 5D 12L in their last 22 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Sampdoria away?
Sampdoria's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.90 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Spezia's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Spezia
3
Draws
3
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sampdoria?
From 10 meetings on record, Spezia have won 4, Sampdoria have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Sampdoria?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 70%, Sampdoria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spezia) and 60% (Sampdoria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Spezia's games and 50% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Spezia's matches and 60% of Sampdoria's.
Do Spezia and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 30% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spezia defy the odds to beat Sampdoria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Sampdoria 1-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.13 xG and Sampdoria 1.29 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.79 / defence 1.08 against Sampdoria attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 31% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 39%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Spezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 59%, Sampdoria 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Sampdoria's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.00 PPG, Sampdoria 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.