Lazio 0-0 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lazio vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atalanta make the trip to Stadio Olimpico to face Lazio in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Lazio's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lazio are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Atalanta (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Atalanta arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lazio register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Atalanta in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lazio, 0 for Atalanta and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lazio — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Atalanta — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lazio 67% and Atalanta 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lazio 81% | Atalanta 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.79 xG and Atalanta 2.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.449 / defence 1.324 | Atalanta attack 1.250 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.539. Lazio carry an above-average attack strength of 1.449 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Atalanta have an above-average attack strength of 1.250 — the away xG of 2.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Lazio games / 21 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 26% | Draw 19% | Atalanta 54%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 3.85 | Draw 5.26 | Atalanta 1.85. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 2.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 70% | Atalanta 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 26% | Draw 19% | Atalanta 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 77% | xG Lazio 1.79 / Atalanta 2.55 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.449 / def 1.324 | Atalanta attack 1.250 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.539 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
2.55
Atalanta xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Atalanta kick off?
Lazio vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Atalanta?
Lazio 0 - 0 Atalanta.
Where is Lazio vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Atalanta part of?
Lazio vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 26% chance of winning, Atalanta a 54% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Lazio and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Atalanta?
Record (1 meetings): Lazio 0W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 0W.
What form are Lazio and Atalanta in?
Lazio (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Atalanta (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lazio's attack at 1.45x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.25x) against Lazio's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 2.55.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (6.8%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
26%
3.77
19%
5.17
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
1 – 3
6.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Lazio xG
Total xG
4.34
2.55
Atalanta xG
3.77
26%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.37
Clean Sheet
8%
12.77
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
2%
48.18
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are Lazio and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Lazio and 2.55 for Atalanta, a combined total of 4.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lazio come into this having played 21 games, going 9W 5D 7L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 2.00 PPG from 21 outings (12W 6D 3L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Lazio — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lazio's home form reads 6W 3D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Lazio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 2.60 points per game from 10 outings (8W 2D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 2.00 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lazio are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 2.10 scored and 1.24 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Atalanta in 71%.
Last 21 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 9W 5D 7L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 12W 6D 3L in their last 21 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 2.10 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lazio
4
Draws
3
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 3, Atalanta have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Lazio 0-2 Atalanta.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Lazio, 70% for Atalanta — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Lazio and 70% for Atalanta. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Atalanta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Lazio's games and 70% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Lazio's matches and 70% of Atalanta's.
Do Lazio and Atalanta tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lazio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio and Atalanta finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.79 xG and Atalanta 2.55 xG, a combined 4.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lazio fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Atalanta landed 2.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.45 / defence 1.32 against Atalanta attack 1.25 / defence 1.06, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 26% | Draw 19% | Atalanta 54%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 81%, Atalanta 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Atalanta's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.