Bologna 1-2 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bologna at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Hellas Verona encounter.

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Analysis

Hellas Verona make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Bologna have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Bologna's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Hellas Verona (all games): 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Hellas Verona's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Bologna's favour (1.30 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Bologna, 3 for Hellas Verona and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Jan 2026, ended Bologna 3–2 Hellas Verona — a Bologna win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Hellas Verona 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Hellas Verona 54%). Note also that Hellas Verona surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Bologna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.35 xG and Hellas Verona 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.741 / defence 1.030 | Hellas Verona attack 0.678 / defence 1.435. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.190. Bologna's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.35. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.435 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.678 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Bologna's last 65 games and Hellas Verona's last 65.

Result probabilities: Bologna 49% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 23%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.04 | Draw 3.58 | Hellas Verona 4.35. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 30% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 50% (last 10 away games).

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