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Poisson rates Bologna at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Bologna encounter.

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Analysis

Bologna make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Sassuolo in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Sassuolo (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 4W 2D 4L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bologna's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sassuolo lead 1W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 53% versus Bologna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 53% | Bologna 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.21 xG and Bologna 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.921 / defence 1.271 | Bologna attack 1.207 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.177. Bologna have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Sassuolo games / 66 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sassuolo 26% | Draw 23% | Bologna 51%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Bologna 1.96. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 50% | Bologna 80% BTTS from recent games.

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