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Poisson rates AS Roma at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs AS Roma encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Genoa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Genoa at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AS Roma's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, AS Roma are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to AS Roma, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2025, ended 1–3 with AS Roma winning.

It is worth noting that AS Roma have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 52% versus AS Roma 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 48% | AS Roma 35%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.18 xG and AS Roma 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.132 / defence 1.081 | AS Roma attack 0.989 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.190. Data: 65 Genoa games / 65 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 39%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | AS Roma 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 60% | AS Roma 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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