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Poisson rates Bologna at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Bologna encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 27 as Pisa welcome Bologna to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Monday 2 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bologna have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bologna are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Pisa, 1 for Bologna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–4 with Bologna winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Pisa trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Bologna trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 52% versus Bologna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 50% | Bologna 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.83 xG and Bologna 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.596 / defence 1.207 | Bologna attack 1.256 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.197. Pisa's attack strength of 0.596 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bologna have an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Pisa games / 64 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pisa 17% | Draw 23% | Bologna 61%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 5.88 | Draw 4.35 | Bologna 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 30% | Bologna 80%.

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