Lecce 2-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lecce at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 28 as Lecce welcome Cremonese to Stadio Via del Mare. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lecce — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lecce have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Via del Mare — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Cremonese have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lecce at 0.70 PPG versus Cremonese's 0.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Lecce's 30% rate and Cremonese's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Lecce have won 2, Cremonese 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lecce in-play and half-time data (65 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (65 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 37% versus Cremonese 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 37% | Cremonese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.10 xG and Cremonese 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.707 / defence 1.054 | Cremonese attack 0.610 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.188. Lecce's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Lecce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Lecce games / 27 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 43% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 25%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Cremonese 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lecce are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 30% | Cremonese 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 43% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Lecce 1.10 / Cremonese 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.707 / def 1.054 | Cremonese attack 0.610 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Lecce (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Cremonese xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Cremonese kick off?
Lecce vs Cremonese kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Stadio Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Cremonese?
Lecce 2 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Lecce vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Cremonese part of?
Lecce vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 43% chance of winning, Cremonese a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Lecce and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Cremonese?
Record (5 meetings): Lecce 2W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Lecce and Cremonese in?
Lecce (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lecce's attack rating (0.71) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
43%
2.31
32%
3.17
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Lecce xG
Total xG
1.86
0.76
Cremonese xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Lecce and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Lecce and 0.76 for Cremonese, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lecce's recent record stands at 14W 16D 35L from 65 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 21W 23D 21L across 65 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecce heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 7W 10D 16L from 33 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 12W 8D 13L across 33 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.31 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 14W 16D 35L in their last 65 games (0.89 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 21W 23D 21L in their last 65 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 0.94 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lecce and Cremonese runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lecce's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lecce
1
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Lecce have won 3, Cremonese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Lecce 2-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Cremonese?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 36%, Cremonese 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lecce) and 58% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 52% of games; Cremonese in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Lecce's recent matches and 52% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lecce's recent games and 58% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Cremonese tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lecce edge out Cremonese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Cremonese 2-1 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.10 xG and Cremonese 0.76 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lecce beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.71 / defence 1.05 against Cremonese attack 0.61 / defence 1.23, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 43% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 25%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 37%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Lecce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.