Fiorentina 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 28 as Fiorentina welcome Parma to Stadio Artemio Franchi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fiorentina stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's home record at Stadio Artemio Franchi: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Parma — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Fiorentina) versus 1.50 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 0, Parma 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Parma in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 60% versus Parma 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 62% | Parma 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.10 xG and Parma 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.995 / defence 1.056 | Parma attack 0.815 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.190. Data: 65 Fiorentina games / 65 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 37% | Draw 30% | Parma 33%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Parma 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 70% | Parma 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 37% | Draw 30% | Parma 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Fiorentina 1.10 / Parma 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.995 / def 1.056 | Parma attack 0.815 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Parma xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Parma kick off?
Fiorentina vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Parma?
Fiorentina 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Fiorentina vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Parma part of?
Fiorentina vs Parma is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 37% chance of winning, Parma a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Fiorentina and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Parma?
Record (3 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 2 | Parma 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Parma in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Parma (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (0.99) and Parma's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.36
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.12
1.02
Parma xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.02 for Parma, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina come into this having played 65 games, going 24W 17D 24L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.06 PPG from 65 outings (15W 24D 26L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.37 PPG, Parma on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fiorentina's home form reads 15W 8D 9L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.06 points per game from 32 outings (7W 13D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 0.98 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Parma in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 24W 17D 24L in their last 65 games (1.37 PPG), while Parma have gone 15W 24D 26L in their last 65 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Parma away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.66 PPG; Parma away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Parma runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fiorentina's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Fiorentina
3
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 0, Parma have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Parma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 62%, Parma 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Fiorentina) and 47% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 31%; Parma in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fiorentina's games and 50% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Fiorentina's recent games and 47% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Parma tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Parma in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fiorentina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 28, as Fiorentina and Parma drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.10 xG and Parma 1.02 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Parma attack 0.81 / defence 0.86, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 37% | Draw 30% | Parma 33%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 62%, Parma 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Parma's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.37 PPG, Parma 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.