Sassuolo 1-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sassuolo and Fiorentina meet at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Sassuolo's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Sassuolo have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fiorentina (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Fiorentina are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Sassuolo 1W, Fiorentina 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2023, ended 1–3 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sassuolo — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 61% versus Fiorentina 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 59% | Fiorentina 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.03 xG and Fiorentina 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.943 / defence 1.355 | Fiorentina attack 1.074 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.061. Data: 56 Sassuolo games / 56 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 24% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 48%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Fiorentina 2.08. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 70% | Fiorentina 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 24% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Sassuolo 1.03 / Fiorentina 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.943 / def 1.355 | Fiorentina attack 1.074 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Fiorentina xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Fiorentina kick off?
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 6 January 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Sassuolo 1 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Sassuolo vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Fiorentina part of?
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 24% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sassuolo and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Fiorentina?
Record (4 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 2W.
What form are Sassuolo and Fiorentina in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (0.94) and Fiorentina's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.07x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
24%
4.12
27%
3.64
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.57
1.54
Fiorentina xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
5%
19.30
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.54 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 16W 13D 27L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina's form line: 25W 14D 17L from 56 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fiorentina are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sassuolo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.29 PPG from 28 outings (10W 6D 12L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 10W 7D 11L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sassuolo are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.43 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 16W 13D 27L in their last 56 games (1.09 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 25W 14D 17L in their last 56 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.29 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 5-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sassuolo
2
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 3, Fiorentina have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Sassuolo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 61%, Fiorentina 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sassuolo) and 36% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 46% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sassuolo's recent games and 36% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sassuolo defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Fiorentina 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.03 xG and Fiorentina 1.54 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.94 / defence 1.35 against Fiorentina attack 1.07 / defence 0.80, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 24% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 48%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sassuolo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 59%, Fiorentina 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Fiorentina's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Sassuolo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.