Cagliari 2-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bologna at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cagliari (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 3W 4D 3L at Unipol Domus — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bologna have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bologna are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cagliari register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bologna in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cagliari 1W, Bologna 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cagliari — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bologna — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 56% versus Bologna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 46% | Bologna 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.20 xG and Bologna 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.854 / defence 1.232 | Bologna attack 0.908 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.072. Data: 19 Cagliari games / 57 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 35% | Draw 30% | Bologna 35%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Bologna 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cagliari 70% | Bologna 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 35% | Draw 30% | Bologna 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Cagliari 1.20 / Bologna 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.854 / def 1.232 | Bologna attack 0.908 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bologna xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Bologna kick off?
Cagliari vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Cagliari 2 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Cagliari vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Bologna part of?
Cagliari vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 35% chance of winning, Bologna a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cagliari and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Bologna?
Record (3 meetings): Cagliari 1W | Draws 0 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Cagliari and Bologna in?
Cagliari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Bologna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.91x) against Cagliari's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
35%
2.84
30%
3.38
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.40
1.20
Bologna xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.20 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Cagliari have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 18W 22D 17L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 22W 20D 15L from 57 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Cagliari against 1.51 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.86 PPG from 28 outings (14W 10D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bologna have gone 8W 9D 11L from 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.32 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Bologna in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 18W 22D 17L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while Bologna have gone 22W 20D 15L in their last 57 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Bologna away?
Cagliari's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.86 PPG; Bologna away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cagliari
1
Draws
5
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 2, Bologna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Bologna 0-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Cagliari, 71% for Bologna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cagliari) and 64% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Cagliari's games and 71% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cagliari's matches and 64% of Bologna's.
Do Cagliari and Bologna tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bologna in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Bologna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Bologna 2-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.20 xG and Bologna 1.20 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Bologna attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 35% | Draw 30% | Bologna 35%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 46%, Bologna 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.33 PPG, Bologna 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.