AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AS Roma face Atalanta.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Atalanta meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, AS Roma have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — AS Roma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Atalanta's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Atalanta's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for AS Roma, 2 for Atalanta and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Apr 2023, ended AS Roma 1–3 Atalanta — a Atalanta win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 50% versus Atalanta 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 45% | Atalanta 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.90 xG and Atalanta 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.307 / defence 0.840 | Atalanta attack 1.030 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.056. AS Roma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.307 — their 1.90 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from AS Roma's last 56 games and Atalanta's last 56.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 60% | Draw 23% | Atalanta 17%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.67 | Draw 4.31 | Atalanta 5.89. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AS Roma's last 10 home games and Atalanta's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 60% (last 10 home games) | Atalanta 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 7 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 60% | Draw 23% | Atalanta 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG AS Roma 1.90 / Atalanta 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.307 / def 0.840 | Atalanta attack 1.030 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Atalanta xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Atalanta kick off?
AS Roma vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 7 January 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma 1 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is AS Roma vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Atalanta part of?
AS Roma vs Atalanta is a Serie A fixture (matchday 19) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 60% chance of winning, Atalanta a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both AS Roma and Atalanta will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Roma vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.31) and Atalanta's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.03x) against AS Roma's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 56 games and Atalanta's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.31
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.81
0.91
Atalanta xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
3%
39.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.91 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma's recent record stands at 26W 13D 17L from 56 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 28W 9D 19L across 56 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for AS Roma against 1.66 for Atalanta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 17W 5D 6L from their last 28 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atalanta's away record stands at 12W 5D 11L across their last 28 away games, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.70 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
AS Roma (Home) vs Atalanta (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Atalanta in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 games (1.62 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 28W 9D 19L in their last 56 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Atalanta away?
AS Roma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.00 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.46 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Atalanta in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between AS Roma and Atalanta, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 2W 2D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Roma
2
Draws
6
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 2, Atalanta have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Atalanta last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: AS Roma 2-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 39%, Atalanta 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (AS Roma) and 46% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Atalanta in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Atalanta matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of AS Roma's recent matches and 46% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Atalanta matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of AS Roma's recent games and 46% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Atalanta matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of AS Roma's recent matches and 75% of Atalanta's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Atalanta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 19, as AS Roma and Atalanta drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.90 xG and Atalanta 0.91 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AS Roma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.31 / defence 0.84 against Atalanta attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 60% | Draw 23% | Atalanta 17%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 45%, Atalanta 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Atalanta's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.62 PPG, Atalanta 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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