Bologna 0-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bologna (39%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bologna face Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara plays host to Bologna versus Cagliari in Serie A (matchday 35). Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bologna have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Bologna have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Cagliari's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Cagliari's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Bologna's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Bologna, who have won 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Cagliari — Cagliari have 2 wins, with 0 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Bologna 2–0 Cagliari — a Bologna win.
The head-to-head data gives Bologna an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 51% versus Cagliari 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | Cagliari 50%). Note also that Cagliari surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Bologna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.23 xG and Cagliari 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.755 / defence 1.144 | Cagliari attack 0.846 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.126. Bologna's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Cagliari's defence rating of 1.308 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Data: built from Bologna's last 72 games and Cagliari's last 72.
Result probabilities: Bologna 39% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 32%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.55 | Draw 3.52 | Cagliari 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bologna 30% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, matchday 35 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 39% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Bologna 1.23 / Cagliari 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.755 / def 1.144 | Cagliari attack 0.846 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Bologna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Cagliari xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs Cagliari FAQs
What time does Bologna vs Cagliari kick off?
Bologna vs Cagliari kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Cagliari?
Bologna 0 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Bologna vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Cagliari part of?
Bologna vs Cagliari is a Serie A fixture (matchday 35) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 39% chance of winning, Cagliari a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bologna and Cagliari will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Bologna vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.76x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.85x) against Bologna's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 72 games and Cagliari's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.52
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.32
1.09
Cagliari xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs Cagliari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bologna and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Bologna and 1.09 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bologna's recent record stands at 30W 20D 22L from 72 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 36L across 72 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 16W 9D 11L from their last 36 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 6W 10D 20L across their last 36 away games, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.06 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
Bologna (Home) vs Cagliari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Bologna vs Cagliari Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 30W 20D 22L in their last 72 games (1.53 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 18W 18D 36L in their last 72 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Cagliari away?
Bologna's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.58 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Bologna or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cagliari in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Bologna
1
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs Cagliari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cagliari?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 6, Cagliari have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bologna and Cagliari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Cagliari 0-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Cagliari?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 47%, Cagliari 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bologna) and 53% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cagliari in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs Cagliari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and Cagliari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bologna's recent matches and 58% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bologna and Cagliari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bologna's recent games and 53% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Cagliari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Bologna's recent matches and 75% of Cagliari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bologna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna and Cagliari finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.23 xG and Cagliari 1.09 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cagliari landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.76 / defence 1.14 against Cagliari attack 0.85 / defence 1.31, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 39% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 32%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, Cagliari 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cagliari's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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