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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 34 as Bologna welcome AS Roma to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Bologna — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 2W 1D 7L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season.

Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

AS Roma's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Bologna) versus 1.50 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Bologna, 2 for AS Roma and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Bologna in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

AS Roma in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 52% versus AS Roma 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | AS Roma 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.16 xG and AS Roma 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.824 / defence 1.098 | AS Roma attack 1.060 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.138. Data: 71 Bologna games / 71 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 33% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 40%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | AS Roma 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 30% | AS Roma 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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