Atalanta 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atalanta and Genoa meet at New Balance Arena in Serie A (matchday 35). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Atalanta have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Atalanta are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Genoa's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Genoa away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Atalanta, who have won 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Genoa — Genoa have 0 wins, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2025, ended Atalanta 1–0 Genoa — a Atalanta win.
The head-to-head data gives Atalanta an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 51% versus Genoa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 47% | Genoa 47%). Note also that Genoa surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Atalanta recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.39 xG and Genoa 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.056 / defence 0.846 | Genoa attack 0.958 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.132. Data: built from Atalanta's last 72 games and Genoa's last 72.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 48% | Draw 27% | Genoa 25%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.09 | Draw 3.66 | Genoa 4.03. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Atalanta 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atalanta 40% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 35 | Venue: New Balance Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 48% | Draw 27% | Genoa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Atalanta 1.39 / Genoa 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.056 / def 0.846 | Genoa attack 0.958 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Genoa xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Genoa kick off?
Atalanta vs Genoa kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at New Balance Arena.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Genoa?
Atalanta 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Atalanta vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at New Balance Arena.
What competition is Atalanta vs Genoa part of?
Atalanta vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 35) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 48% chance of winning, Genoa a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Atalanta and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Atalanta vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.96x) against Atalanta's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 72 games and Genoa's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.66
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.31
0.92
Genoa xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
6%
16.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.92 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 36W 20D 16L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 20W 22D 30L from 72 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Atalanta are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.74 PPG from their last 35 home games (17W 10D 8L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 9W 11D 15L from their last 35 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.07 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
Atalanta (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Atalanta vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Genoa in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 36W 20D 16L in their last 72 games (1.78 PPG), while Genoa have gone 20W 22D 30L in their last 72 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Genoa away?
Atalanta's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.74 PPG; Genoa away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Genoa in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won Atalanta 5-1 Genoa on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Atalanta
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Genoa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Atalanta 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Genoa?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 57%, Genoa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Atalanta) and 46% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Genoa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Atalanta's games and 54% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Atalanta and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Atalanta's recent games and 46% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Atalanta's recent matches and 63% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atalanta's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 35, as Atalanta and Genoa drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.39 xG and Genoa 0.92 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.06 / defence 0.85 against Genoa attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 48% | Draw 27% | Genoa 25%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 47%, Genoa 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Genoa's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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