Atalanta 5-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atalanta face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atalanta and Genoa meet at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Atalanta have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genoa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Genoa away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Atalanta edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2024, ended Atalanta 4–1 Genoa — a Atalanta win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 54% versus Genoa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 68% | Genoa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.74 xG and Genoa 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.269 / defence 1.263 | Genoa attack 0.837 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.257. Atalanta carry an above-average attack rating of 1.269 — their 1.74 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Atalanta's defence rating of 1.263 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Genoa's projected output up. Data: built from Atalanta's last 44 games and Genoa's last 44.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 44% | Draw 29% | Genoa 27%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.26 | Draw 3.43 | Genoa 3.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.74 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Atalanta's last 10 home games and Genoa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atalanta 70% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 7 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 44% | Draw 29% | Genoa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Atalanta 1.74 / Genoa 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.269 / def 1.263 | Genoa attack 0.837 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Genoa xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Genoa kick off?
Atalanta vs Genoa kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Genoa?
Atalanta 5 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Atalanta vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Genoa part of?
Atalanta vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 7) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 44% chance of winning, Genoa a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Atalanta and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atalanta vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.84x) against Atalanta's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 44 games and Genoa's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.43
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.07
1.33
Genoa xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
5%
21.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.33 for Genoa, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 23W 7D 14L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 13W 15D 16L from 44 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Atalanta are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 2.10 PPG from their last 21 home games (14W 2D 5L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 5W 7D 9L from their last 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.11 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
Atalanta (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Atalanta vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Genoa in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 23W 7D 14L in their last 44 games (1.73 PPG), while Genoa have gone 13W 15D 16L in their last 44 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Genoa away?
Atalanta's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.10 PPG; Genoa away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Genoa in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won Atalanta 5-1 Genoa on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Atalanta
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Genoa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Atalanta 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Genoa?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 52%, Genoa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Atalanta) and 38% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Genoa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Atalanta's recent matches and 52% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atalanta and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Atalanta's recent games and 38% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Atalanta's recent matches and 52% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atalanta run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Genoa 5-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.74 xG and Genoa 1.33 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.27 / defence 1.26 against Genoa attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 44% | Draw 29% | Genoa 27%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 68%, Genoa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.24 average — above their attacking norm. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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