Genoa 0-3 Juventus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Juventus at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have recorded 3W 7D 0L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Juventus have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Juventus have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 1.50 PPG, Juventus 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Genoa, 1 for Juventus and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Genoa in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Juventus in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 56% versus Juventus 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 40% | Juventus 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.00 xG and Juventus 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.943 / defence 1.064 | Juventus attack 1.070 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.209. Juventus's defence strength of 0.753 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Genoa games / 43 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 24% | Draw 34% | Juventus 42%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | Juventus 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 50% | Juventus 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 24% | Draw 34% | Juventus 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Genoa 1.00 / Juventus 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.943 / def 1.064 | Juventus attack 1.070 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Juventus (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Juventus xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Juventus kick off?
Genoa vs Juventus kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Juventus?
Genoa 0 - 3 Juventus.
Where is Genoa vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Juventus part of?
Genoa vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 24% chance of winning, Juventus a 42% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Genoa and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Juventus?
Record (4 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 2 | Juventus 1W.
What form are Genoa and Juventus in?
Genoa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Juventus (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.94x the league average against Juventus's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
24%
4.21
34%
2.93
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.37
1.38
Juventus xG
4.21
24%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
6%
16.66
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Genoa and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Genoa and 1.38 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 13W 15D 15L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juventus's form line: 21W 17D 5L from 43 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Juventus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 9W 8D 4L from 21 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.40 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Juventus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Juventus in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 13W 15D 15L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Juventus have gone 21W 17D 5L in their last 43 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.52 PPG; Juventus away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Genoa or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Juventus in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Juventus runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Juventus won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Genoa
2
Draws
5
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Juventus?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Juventus have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Juventus 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 57%, Juventus 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Genoa) and 52% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Juventus in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Genoa's recent matches and 48% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Genoa's recent games and 52% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Juventus tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Juventus in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Juventus run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Genoa 0-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.00 xG and Juventus 1.38 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Juventus outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against Juventus attack 1.07 / defence 0.75, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 24% | Draw 34% | Juventus 42%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Juventus 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juventus's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.