Hellas Verona 2-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Venezia at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Hellas Verona — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hellas Verona at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Venezia have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Hellas Verona) versus 1.40 (Venezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 2, Venezia 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 3–1 with Hellas Verona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Venezia in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 57% versus Venezia 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 54% | Venezia 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.96 xG and Venezia 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.105 / defence 1.165 | Venezia attack 0.677 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.267. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Hellas Verona games / 6 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 57% | Draw 27% | Venezia 16%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Venezia 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Hellas Verona (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 60% | Venezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 57% | Draw 27% | Venezia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Hellas Verona 1.96 / Venezia 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.105 / def 1.165 | Venezia attack 0.677 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Venezia xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Venezia kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Venezia kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Venezia?
Hellas Verona 2 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Venezia part of?
Hellas Verona vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 57% chance of winning, Venezia a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hellas Verona and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Venezia?
Record (2 meetings): Hellas Verona 2W | Draws 0 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Venezia in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Venezia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 1.10x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
57%
1.76
27%
3.64
16%
6.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.96
1.00
Venezia xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
6.33
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
2%
44.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.00 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Venezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hellas Verona come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 11D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.73 PPG from 44 outings (23W 7D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hellas Verona's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.27 points per game from 22 outings (8W 4D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.61 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Venezia in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while Venezia have gone 23W 7D 14L in their last 44 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.23 PPG; Venezia away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Venezia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and Venezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
0
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, Venezia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2025, when Venezia 1-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Venezia?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 64%, Venezia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Hellas Verona and 68% for Venezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia in 36%; Venezia in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Hellas Verona's games and 50% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Hellas Verona's matches and 68% of Venezia's.
Do Hellas Verona and Venezia tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Venezia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hellas Verona edge out Venezia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Venezia 2-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.96 xG and Venezia 1.00 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.10 / defence 1.17 against Venezia attack 0.68 / defence 1.24, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 57% | Draw 27% | Venezia 16%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 54%, Venezia 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.