Juventus 1-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Juventus (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Juventus face Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventus and Cagliari meet at Allianz Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Juventus's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 6D 0L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Juventus have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juventus's home record at Allianz Stadium: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cagliari (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cagliari's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Juventus's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Juventus are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Juventus and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 41% versus Cagliari 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 41% | Cagliari 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.38 xG and Cagliari 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.849 / defence 0.629 | Cagliari attack 0.979 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.262. Juventus's defence rating of 0.629 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Juventus games / 44 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 48% | Draw 34% | Cagliari 18%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.08 | Draw 2.94 | Cagliari 5.56. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventus at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 30% | Cagliari 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 48% | Draw 34% | Cagliari 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Juventus 1.38 / Cagliari 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.849 / def 0.629 | Cagliari attack 0.979 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Juventus (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Cagliari xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Cagliari kick off?
Juventus vs Cagliari kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Cagliari?
Juventus 1 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Juventus vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Cagliari part of?
Juventus vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 48% chance of winning, Cagliari a 18% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Juventus and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Cagliari?
Record (4 meetings): Juventus 3W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Juventus and Cagliari in?
Juventus (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Cagliari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Juventus vs Cagliari?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juventus's attack rating (0.85) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.98x) against Juventus's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
48%
2.08
34%
2.94
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.16
0.78
Cagliari xG
2.08
48%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
5%
21.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Juventus and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Juventus and 0.78 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juventus come into this having played 44 games, going 22W 17D 5L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Juventus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 0.93 PPG from 44 outings (9W 14D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juventus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Juventus's home form reads 12W 8D 1L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (3W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventus are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.05 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari in 61%.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Early Season
Cagliari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 22W 17D 5L in their last 44 games (1.89 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 9W 14D 21L in their last 44 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Cagliari away?
Juventus's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.10 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Juventus or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Cagliari in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Juventus
2
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventus have won 5, Cagliari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Cagliari 1-0 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Cagliari?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventus see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 33%, Cagliari 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Juventus) and 52% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Cagliari in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Juventus's recent matches and 48% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Juventus's recent games and 52% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Cagliari tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus and Cagliari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Juventus and Cagliari drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.38 xG and Cagliari 0.78 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.85 / defence 0.63 against Cagliari attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 48% | Draw 34% | Cagliari 18%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 41%, Cagliari 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Cagliari's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.