Lazio 2-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lazio vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lazio and Empoli meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lazio's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lazio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lazio at Stadio Olimpico this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Empoli (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Lazio have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Empoli managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Lazio winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lazio and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Lazio — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Empoli — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 57% versus Empoli 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lazio 48% | Empoli 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.39 xG and Empoli 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.146 / defence 0.958 | Empoli attack 1.019 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.265. Data: 44 Lazio games / 44 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 37% | Draw 33% | Empoli 30%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Empoli 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lazio 60% | Empoli 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 37% | Draw 33% | Empoli 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Lazio 1.39 / Empoli 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.146 / def 0.958 | Empoli attack 1.019 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Lazio (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Empoli xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Empoli kick off?
Lazio vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Empoli?
Lazio 2 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Lazio vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Empoli part of?
Lazio vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 37% chance of winning, Empoli a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lazio and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Empoli?
Record (6 meetings): Lazio 4W | Draws 2 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Lazio and Empoli in?
Lazio (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Empoli (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lazio's attack rating (1.15) and Empoli's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (1.02x) against Lazio's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
37%
2.70
33%
3.04
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.62
1.24
Empoli xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Lazio and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Lazio and 1.24 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lazio come into this having played 44 games, going 21W 8D 15L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Lazio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.05 PPG from 44 outings (11W 13D 20L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lazio's home form reads 12W 5D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lazio are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.77 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Empoli in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 21W 8D 15L in their last 44 games (1.61 PPG), while Empoli have gone 11W 13D 20L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Empoli away?
Lazio's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.86 PPG; Empoli away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Lazio have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lazio
2
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Lazio have won 6, Empoli have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Empoli 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Empoli?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lazio see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 46%, Empoli 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Lazio and 32% for Empoli.
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Empoli in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Lazio's recent matches and 41% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lazio vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Lazio's recent games and 32% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Empoli tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Empoli in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Empoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Empoli 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.39 xG and Empoli 1.24 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.15 / defence 0.96 against Empoli attack 1.02 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 37% | Draw 33% | Empoli 30%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 48%, Empoli 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.