Udinese 1-0 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Lecce travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 2W 4D 4L at Bluenergy Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bluenergy Stadium this season.
Lecce — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Lecce have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lecce away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Udinese carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Udinese, 1 for Lecce and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Udinese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lecce in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 59% versus Lecce 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Udinese 41% | Lecce 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.37 xG and Lecce 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.990 / defence 1.035 | Lecce attack 0.643 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.267. Data: 44 Udinese games / 44 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 45% | Draw 35% | Lecce 19%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.22 | Draw 2.86 | Lecce 5.26. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 80% | Lecce 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 45% | Draw 35% | Lecce 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Udinese 1.37 / Lecce 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.990 / def 1.035 | Lecce attack 0.643 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Udinese (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Lecce xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Lecce kick off?
Udinese vs Lecce kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Lecce?
Udinese 1 - 0 Lecce.
Where is Udinese vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Lecce part of?
Udinese vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 45% chance of winning, Lecce a 19% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Udinese and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lecce?
Record (4 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 2 | Lecce 1W.
What form are Udinese and Lecce in?
Udinese (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Lecce (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.99) and Lecce's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
45%
2.20
35%
2.85
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.21
0.84
Lecce xG
2.20
45%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
5%
20.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Udinese and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Udinese and 0.84 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 9W 20D 15L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lecce's form line: 9W 16D 19L from 44 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Lecce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.07 PPG, Lecce on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Udinese have posted 0.91 PPG from 22 outings (3W 11D 8L).
On the road, Lecce have gone 2W 9D 11L from 22 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.80 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Lecce
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Lecce in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 9W 20D 15L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while Lecce have gone 9W 16D 19L in their last 44 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Lecce away?
Udinese's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 0.91 PPG; Lecce away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Lecce runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Udinese
2
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lecce?
From 8 meetings on record, Udinese have won 4, Lecce have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lecce 2-1 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Lecce?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 68%, Lecce 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Udinese) and 36% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Lecce in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Udinese's recent matches and 41% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Udinese's recent games and 36% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Lecce tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lecce in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Lecce 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Lecce 1-0 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.37 xG and Lecce 0.84 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lecce landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.99 / defence 1.03 against Lecce attack 0.64 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 45% | Draw 35% | Lecce 19%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 41%, Lecce 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Lecce's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.07 PPG, Lecce 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.