Atalanta 2-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atalanta host Cremonese at New Balance Arena in Serie A (matchday 24). Kick-off is Monday 9 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Atalanta — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Atalanta's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Cremonese have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cremonese's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Atalanta have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Atalanta's 30% BTTS rate and Cremonese's 30% (from Atalanta's last 10 home games and Cremonese's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Atalanta, 0 for Cremonese and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Atalanta 1–1 Cremonese — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Atalanta in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 49% versus Cremonese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 46% | Cremonese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.73 xG and Cremonese 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.210 / defence 0.725 | Cremonese attack 0.581 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.207. Cremonese's attack rating of 0.581 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.51. Atalanta have a tight defence (rating 0.725), which is pulling Cremonese's projected output down. Data: built from Atalanta's last 61 games and Cremonese's last 23.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 67% | Draw 23% | Cremonese 10%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.49 | Draw 4.43 | Cremonese 9.84. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (67%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Cremonese's lower xG of 0.51 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Atalanta's last 10 home games and Cremonese's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atalanta 30% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 24 | Venue: New Balance Arena • Kick-off: Monday 9 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 67% | Draw 23% | Cremonese 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Atalanta 1.73 / Cremonese 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.210 / def 0.725 | Cremonese attack 0.581 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Cremonese xG
33%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Cremonese kick off?
Atalanta vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Monday 9 February 2026 at New Balance Arena.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Cremonese?
Atalanta 2 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Atalanta vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at New Balance Arena.
What competition is Atalanta vs Cremonese part of?
Atalanta vs Cremonese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 67% chance of winning, Cremonese a 10% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Atalanta and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Atalanta vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.21x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 0.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 61 games and Cremonese's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (16.0%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
67%
1.49
23%
4.43
10%
9.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.24
0.51
Cremonese xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
9.84
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
60%
1.66
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
40%
2.47
2%
55.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 9.4 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 16.0 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.51 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atalanta come into this having played 61 games, going 31W 17D 13L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.39 PPG from 61 outings (21W 22D 18L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Cremonese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atalanta's home form reads 15W 9D 7L across their last 31 home games, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.42 points per game from their last 31 away games (12W 8D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.38 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
Atalanta (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Atalanta vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 31W 17D 13L in their last 61 games (1.80 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 21W 22D 18L in their last 61 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Cremonese away?
Atalanta's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.74 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cremonese in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 9 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atalanta's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Atalanta
2
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Cremonese?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 2, Cremonese have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2026: Atalanta 2-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Cremonese?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 58%, Cremonese 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Atalanta) and 55% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Cremonese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Atalanta's recent matches and 52% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atalanta and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Atalanta's recent games and 55% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Cremonese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Atalanta's recent matches and 64% of Cremonese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Cremonese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Cremonese 2-1 at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.73 xG and Cremonese 0.51 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.21 / defence 0.72 against Cremonese attack 0.58 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 67% | Draw 23% | Cremonese 10%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 46%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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