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Poisson model favours Inter (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cremonese face Inter.

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Match Analysis

Cremonese host Inter at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Inter have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Inter, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Cremonese.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–4 with Inter winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Inter have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Cremonese in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Inter in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 60% versus Inter 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Inter 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.74 xG and Inter 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.810 / defence 1.199 | Inter attack 1.226 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.146. Inter's defence strength of 0.727 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Cremonese games / 60 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cremonese 16% | Draw 24% | Inter 60%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 6.25 | Draw 4.17 | Inter 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Inter (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 60% | Inter 40%.

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