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Poisson model favours AS Roma (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Udinese.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025, 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

AS Roma — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of AS Roma: 6 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for Udinese, with 1 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with AS Roma winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AS Roma and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

AS Roma trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Udinese trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 42% versus Udinese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 35% | Udinese 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.40 xG and Udinese 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.987 / defence 0.843 | Udinese attack 1.025 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.053. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 AS Roma games / 48 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AS Roma 46% | Draw 31% | Udinese 23%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Udinese 4.35. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Udinese 60% BTTS from recent games.

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