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Poisson rates Bologna at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Bologna encounter.

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Analysis

Bologna make the trip to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Udinese (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udinese have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Bologna have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bologna away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bologna are 0.70 PPG clear of Udinese in recent Serie A fixtures (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Udinese lead 1W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Udinese — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Bologna — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 49% | Bologna 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.29 xG and Bologna 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.050 / defence 1.154 | Bologna attack 1.225 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.035. Bologna have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Udinese games / 49 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Udinese 32% | Draw 29% | Bologna 40%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Bologna 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 50% | Bologna 50%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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