Bologna 2-0 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Napoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara plays host to Bologna versus Napoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 9 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Bologna (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Napoli have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Bologna, 2.20 for Napoli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Napoli, who have claimed 4 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Napoli have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Napoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Napoli 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | Napoli 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.16 xG and Napoli 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.172 / defence 0.749 | Napoli attack 1.041 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.052. Bologna's defence rating of 0.749 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Bologna games / 48 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 34% | Napoli 24%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Napoli 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | Napoli 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 34% | Napoli 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Bologna 1.16 / Napoli 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.172 / def 0.749 | Napoli attack 1.041 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Bologna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Napoli xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Napoli kick off?
Bologna vs Napoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Napoli?
Bologna 2 - 0 Napoli.
Where is Bologna vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Napoli part of?
Bologna vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 42% chance of winning, Napoli a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bologna and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Napoli?
Record (8 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 3 | Napoli 4W.
What form are Bologna and Napoli in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Napoli (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.17x the league average against Napoli's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (1.04x) against Bologna's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
42%
2.38
34%
2.95
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Bologna xG
Total xG
1.98
0.82
Napoli xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 11.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Bologna and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Bologna and 0.82 for Napoli, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bologna come into this having played 48 games, going 21W 17D 10L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 2.17 PPG from 48 outings (31W 11D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bologna's home form reads 13W 8D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 2.00 points per game from 23 outings (13W 7D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.56 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Napoli in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 21W 17D 10L in their last 48 games (1.67 PPG), while Napoli have gone 31W 11D 6L in their last 48 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Napoli away?
Bologna's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.04 PPG; Napoli away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Bologna or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Napoli in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bologna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
4
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Napoli?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Napoli have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Napoli 2-3 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 56%, Napoli 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Bologna) and 39% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Napoli in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Bologna's recent matches and 44% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Bologna's recent games and 39% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Napoli tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Napoli in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Napoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Napoli 2-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.16 xG and Napoli 0.82 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Napoli landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.17 / defence 0.75 against Napoli attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 42% | Draw 34% | Napoli 24%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, Napoli 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Napoli's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.67. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.