🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Fiorentina at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Fiorentina encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Genoa at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 0.60 PPG, Fiorentina 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Fiorentina, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Genoa.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Fiorentina winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fiorentina have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Genoa trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Fiorentina trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 48% versus Fiorentina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 42% | Fiorentina 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.74 xG and Fiorentina 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.603 / defence 1.178 | Fiorentina attack 0.808 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.052. Genoa's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Genoa games / 48 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Genoa 25% | Draw 37% | Fiorentina 39%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 4.00 | Draw 2.70 | Fiorentina 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Genoa's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 30% | Fiorentina 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights