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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Pisa take on Cremonese.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Pisa welcome Cremonese to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 November 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Pisa — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 3W 4D 3L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cremonese's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cremonese — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Pisa, 1 for Cremonese and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Pisa winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Pisa in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Cremonese in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 52% and Cremonese 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 52% | Cremonese 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.58 xG and Cremonese 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.465 / defence 0.833 | Cremonese attack 0.975 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.062. Pisa's attack strength of 0.465 is below the league average — the 0.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Pisa games / 10 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pisa 22% | Draw 39% | Cremonese 39%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.55 | Draw 2.56 | Cremonese 2.56. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.44. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.44 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Pisa's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.

Summary & Verdict

Pisa dominate the H2H record, yet Cremonese are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 22% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 18% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 27% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 40% | Cremonese 70%.

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