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Poisson rates AS Roma at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Cremonese welcome AS Roma to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AS Roma are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 1 for AS Roma and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
AS Roma trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 67% versus AS Roma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 55% | AS Roma 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.76 xG and AS Roma 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.872 / defence 1.166 | AS Roma attack 0.947 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.076. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 11 Cremonese games / 49 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 22% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 44%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | AS Roma 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 70% | AS Roma 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Cremonese 2 – 2 AS Roma • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Cremonese 50% / Draw 0% / AS Roma 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 22% / draw 34% / away 44% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 1.95 (31% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 39% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Cremonese (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L • AS Roma (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W • Cremonese home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • AS Roma away split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | CS 6 • Form edge: AS Roma lead by 1.00 PPG (2.10 vs 1.10) • xG vs form (Cremonese): Poisson projects 0.76 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (AS Roma): Poisson xG of 1.19 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.7 total goals, Poisson xG sum 1.95 (69% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 39% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on AS Roma — AS Roma at 44% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 22% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Cremonese 0.76 / AS Roma 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.872 / def 1.166 | AS Roma attack 0.947 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.19
AS Roma xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs AS Roma kick off?
Cremonese vs AS Roma kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs AS Roma?
Cremonese 1 - 3 AS Roma.
Where is Cremonese vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs AS Roma part of?
Cremonese vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 22% chance of winning, AS Roma a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cremonese and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and AS Roma?
• Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Cremonese 2 – 2 AS Roma • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Cremonese 50% / Draw 0% / AS Roma 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 22% / draw 34% / away 44% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 1.95 (31% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 39% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Cremonese and AS Roma in?
• Cremonese (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L • AS Roma (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W • Cremonese home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • AS Roma away split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | CS 6 • Form edge: AS Roma lead by 1.00 PPG (2.10 vs 1.10) • xG vs form (Cremonese): Poisson projects 0.76 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (AS Roma): Poisson xG of 1.19 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.7 total goals, Poisson xG sum 1.95 (69% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 39% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on AS Roma — AS Roma at 44% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Cremonese vs AS Roma?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture