AS Roma 3-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Udinese travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
AS Roma — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, AS Roma have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Udinese have recorded 1W 7D 2L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Udinese have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for AS Roma, 1 for Udinese and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2023, ended AS Roma 3–0 Udinese — a AS Roma win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AS Roma trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 50% versus Udinese 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 46% | Udinese 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.59 xG and Udinese 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.329 / defence 0.858 | Udinese attack 0.773 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.167. AS Roma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.329 — their 1.59 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Udinese's attack rating of 0.773 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from AS Roma's last 50 games and Udinese's last 50.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 57% | Draw 25% | Udinese 18%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.76 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 5.54. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AS Roma 60% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 57% | Draw 25% | Udinese 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG AS Roma 1.59 / Udinese 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.329 / def 0.858 | Udinese attack 0.773 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Udinese xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Udinese FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Udinese kick off?
AS Roma vs Udinese kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Udinese?
AS Roma 3 - 1 Udinese.
Where is AS Roma vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Udinese part of?
AS Roma vs Udinese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 57% chance of winning, Udinese a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AS Roma and Udinese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will AS Roma vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.33) and Udinese's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 50 games and Udinese's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
57%
1.76
25%
4.00
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.37
0.77
Udinese xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
4%
27.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Udinese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.77 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma's recent record stands at 23W 12D 15L from 50 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 12W 21D 17L across 50 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-D-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 15W 4D 6L from their last 25 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 6W 8D 11L across their last 25 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.10 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Udinese
Blended
AS Roma (Home) vs Udinese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ AS Roma vs Udinese Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Udinese in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 23W 12D 15L in their last 50 games (1.62 PPG), while Udinese have gone 12W 21D 17L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Udinese away?
AS Roma's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.96 PPG; Udinese away: 1.04 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Udinese in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Sep 2022, when Udinese won Udinese 4-0 AS Roma.
AS Roma's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AS Roma
1
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Udinese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Udinese?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 7, Udinese have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Udinese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Udinese 2-5 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Udinese?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 36%, Udinese 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (AS Roma) and 40% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Udinese in 32%; Udinese in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Udinese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Udinese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of AS Roma's recent matches and 44% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Udinese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of AS Roma's recent games and 40% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Udinese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of AS Roma's recent matches and 52% of Udinese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Udinese 3-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.59 xG and Udinese 0.77 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.33 / defence 0.86 against Udinese attack 0.77 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 57% | Draw 25% | Udinese 18%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 46%, Udinese 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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