AS Roma 3-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for AS Roma, 1 for Udinese and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
AS Roma trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 50% versus Udinese 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 46% | Udinese 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.59 xG and Udinese 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.329 / defence 0.858 | Udinese attack 0.773 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.167. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 AS Roma games / 50 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 57% | Draw 25% | Udinese 18%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 5.56. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 60% | Udinese 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 57% | Draw 25% | Udinese 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG AS Roma 1.59 / Udinese 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.329 / def 0.858 | Udinese attack 0.773 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Udinese xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Udinese kick off?
AS Roma vs Udinese kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Udinese?
AS Roma 3 - 1 Udinese.
Where is AS Roma vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Udinese part of?
AS Roma vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 57% chance of winning, Udinese a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AS Roma and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Udinese?
Record (4 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 1 | Udinese 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Udinese in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Udinese (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.33) and Udinese's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
57%
1.76
25%
4.00
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.37
0.77
Udinese xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
4%
27.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.77 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma's recent record stands at 23W 12D 15L from 50 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 12W 21D 17L across 50 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 15W 4D 6L from 25 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 6W 8D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.10 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Udinese in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 23W 12D 15L in their last 50 games (1.62 PPG), while Udinese have gone 12W 21D 17L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Udinese away?
AS Roma's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.96 PPG; Udinese away: 1.04 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Udinese in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Udinese runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Udinese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AS Roma
1
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 7, Udinese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Udinese 1-0 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Udinese?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 36%, Udinese 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (AS Roma) and 40% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Udinese in 32%; Udinese in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of AS Roma's recent matches and 44% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of AS Roma's recent games and 40% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Udinese tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Udinese in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Udinese 3-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.59 xG and Udinese 0.77 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.33 / defence 0.86 against Udinese attack 0.77 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 57% | Draw 25% | Udinese 18%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 46%, Udinese 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.