Empoli 3-4 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Empoli face Sassuolo.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Empoli welcome Sassuolo to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Serie A (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 26 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Empoli stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Empoli have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sassuolo — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Sassuolo's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 1.00 PPG, Sassuolo 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Empoli, 2 for Sassuolo and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended Empoli 1–2 Sassuolo — a Sassuolo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sassuolo trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 40% versus Sassuolo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 36% | Sassuolo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.08 xG and Sassuolo 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.666 / defence 1.043 | Sassuolo attack 1.039 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.139. Empoli's attack rating of 0.666 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Sassuolo's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Empoli's projected output up. Data: built from Empoli's last 50 games and Sassuolo's last 50.
Result probabilities: Empoli 32% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 40%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.11 | Draw 3.55 | Sassuolo 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Empoli 30% (last 10 home games) | Sassuolo 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 32% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Empoli 1.08 / Sassuolo 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.666 / def 1.043 | Sassuolo attack 1.039 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Sassuolo xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Empoli vs Sassuolo FAQs
What time does Empoli vs Sassuolo kick off?
Empoli vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Empoli 3 - 4 Sassuolo.
Where is Empoli vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Sassuolo part of?
Empoli vs Sassuolo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 32% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Empoli and Sassuolo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Empoli vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.67x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Empoli's last 50 games and Sassuolo's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
32%
3.11
28%
3.55
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.32
1.24
Sassuolo xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Empoli vs Sassuolo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Empoli and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Empoli and 1.24 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Empoli's recent record stands at 13W 14D 23L from 50 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 23L across 50 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.06 PPG, Sassuolo on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 9W 4D 11L from their last 24 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sassuolo's away record stands at 5W 6D 13L across their last 24 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.26 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
Empoli (Home) vs Sassuolo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Empoli
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Empoli vs Sassuolo Form FAQs
What form are Empoli and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 14D 23L in their last 50 games (1.06 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 15W 12D 23L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Sassuolo away?
Empoli's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.29 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Jan 2022, when Sassuolo won Empoli 1-5 Sassuolo.
Empoli's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Empoli
0
Draws
3
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Empoli vs Sassuolo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sassuolo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Empoli have won 3, Sassuolo have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Sassuolo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: Sassuolo 2-3 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 33%, Sassuolo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Empoli) and 67% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 42% of games; Sassuolo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Empoli vs Sassuolo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Empoli and Sassuolo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Empoli's recent matches and 58% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Empoli and Sassuolo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Empoli's recent games and 67% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Sassuolo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Empoli's recent matches and 79% of Sassuolo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Empoli 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Empoli 3-4 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.08 xG and Sassuolo 1.24 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sassuolo outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.67 / defence 1.04 against Sassuolo attack 1.04 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 32% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 40%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 36%, Sassuolo 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.06 PPG, Sassuolo 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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