Bologna 2-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Torino at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Bologna — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bologna at 1.70 PPG versus Torino's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bologna, 2 for Torino and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Torino winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Torino in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 60% versus Torino 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 50% | Torino 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.28 xG and Torino 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.977 / defence 0.760 | Torino attack 0.992 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.173. Bologna's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Bologna games / 50 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 45% | Draw 29% | Torino 26%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Torino 3.85. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | Torino 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Monday 27 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 45% | Draw 29% | Torino 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Bologna 1.28 / Torino 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.977 / def 0.760 | Torino attack 0.992 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Bologna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Torino xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Torino kick off?
Bologna vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 27 November 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Torino?
Bologna 2 - 0 Torino.
Where is Bologna vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Torino part of?
Bologna vs Torino is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 45% chance of winning, Torino a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bologna and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Torino?
Record (4 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 1 | Torino 2W.
What form are Bologna and Torino in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Torino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.98) and Torino's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.47
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.16
0.88
Torino xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Bologna and 0.88 for Torino, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 18W 18D 14L from 50 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 17L across 50 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.44 PPG, Torino on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 11W 10D 4L from 25 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 11W 5D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.04 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bologna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Torino in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 18W 18D 14L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while Torino have gone 18W 15D 17L in their last 50 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Torino away?
Bologna's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.72 PPG; Torino away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Bologna or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Torino in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Torino specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bologna
3
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 5, Torino have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Torino 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Torino?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 48%, Torino 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bologna) and 44% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Torino in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bologna's recent matches and 52% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bologna's recent games and 44% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Torino tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Torino in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Torino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Torino 2-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.28 xG and Torino 0.88 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Torino landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.98 / defence 0.76 against Torino attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 45% | Draw 29% | Torino 26%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Torino 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Torino's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.44 PPG, Torino 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.