Frosinone 2-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Frosinone face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Genoa travel to Stadio Benito Stirpe to take on Frosinone in Serie A (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Frosinone stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Frosinone's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Frosinone are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Genoa have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Genoa away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Frosinone at 1.20 PPG versus Genoa's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Frosinone have won 1, Genoa 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Frosinone 3–2 Genoa — a Frosinone win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Frosinone trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Genoa trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 48% versus Genoa 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 48% | Genoa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.78 xG and Genoa 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.159 / defence 1.181 | Genoa attack 0.713 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.139. Genoa's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Frosinone's last 12 games and Genoa's last 12.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 57% | Draw 23% | Genoa 20%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.77 | Draw 4.30 | Genoa 4.96. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Frosinone's last 10 home games and Genoa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Frosinone 80% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 57% | Draw 23% | Genoa 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Frosinone 1.78 / Genoa 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.159 / def 1.181 | Genoa attack 0.713 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Genoa xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frosinone vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Frosinone vs Genoa kick off?
Frosinone vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Genoa?
Frosinone 2 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Frosinone vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Genoa part of?
Frosinone vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 57% chance of winning, Genoa a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Frosinone and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Frosinone vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Frosinone's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Frosinone's last 12 games and Genoa's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
57%
1.77
23%
4.30
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.73
0.96
Genoa xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
3%
29.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frosinone vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.96 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Frosinone's recent record stands at 28W 11D 11L from 50 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 12L across 50 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Frosinone on 1.90 PPG, Genoa on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 18W 4D 3L from their last 25 home games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — Frosinone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Genoa's away record stands at 10W 6D 9L across their last 25 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.32 scored and 0.88 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Genoa in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Genoa
Blended
Frosinone (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Frosinone
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frosinone vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Frosinone and Genoa in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 28W 11D 11L in their last 50 games (1.90 PPG), while Genoa have gone 25W 13D 12L in their last 50 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Genoa away?
Frosinone's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.32 PPG; Genoa away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Genoa in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2022. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Frosinone's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Frosinone
2
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frosinone vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Genoa?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Frosinone have won 2, Genoa have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Genoa 1-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Genoa?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 44%, Genoa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Frosinone) and 48% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Genoa in 32%; Genoa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frosinone vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Frosinone and Genoa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Frosinone's recent matches and 44% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Frosinone and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Frosinone's recent games and 48% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Frosinone's recent matches and 60% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Genoa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Genoa 2-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.78 xG and Genoa 0.96 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.16 / defence 1.18 against Genoa attack 0.71 / defence 1.18, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 57% | Draw 23% | Genoa 20%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 48%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.90 PPG, Genoa 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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