Udinese 1-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Atalanta at Bluenergy Stadium in Serie A (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Udinese have gone 1W 7D 2L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Udinese have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Atalanta stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Atalanta away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atalanta — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Udinese, 1 for Atalanta and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended Udinese 0–0 Atalanta — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Udinese trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Atalanta trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 51% versus Atalanta 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 45% | Atalanta 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.11 xG and Atalanta 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.817 / defence 1.129 | Atalanta attack 1.253 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.182. Atalanta have an above-average attack rating of 1.253, which lifts their away xG to 1.67. Data: built from Udinese's last 49 games and Atalanta's last 49.
Result probabilities: Udinese 25% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 51%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.97 | Draw 4.12 | Atalanta 1.98. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Udinese 30% (last 10 home games) | Atalanta 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, matchday 12 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 25% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Udinese 1.11 / Atalanta 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.817 / def 1.129 | Atalanta attack 1.253 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Atalanta xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Atalanta FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Atalanta kick off?
Udinese vs Atalanta kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Atalanta?
Udinese 1 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is Udinese vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Atalanta part of?
Udinese vs Atalanta is a Serie A fixture (matchday 12) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 25% chance of winning, Atalanta a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Udinese and Atalanta will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Udinese vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.82) and Atalanta's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 49 games and Atalanta's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
25%
3.97
24%
4.12
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.78
1.67
Atalanta xG
3.97
25%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
5%
21.13
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.4 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Atalanta Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Udinese and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Udinese and 1.67 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese's recent record stands at 12W 20D 17L from 49 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 25W 8D 16L across 49 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 6W 12D 6L from their last 24 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atalanta's away record stands at 11W 4D 9L across their last 24 away games, a 1.54 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.73 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
Udinese (Home) vs Atalanta (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Udinese vs Atalanta Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 12W 20D 17L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 25W 8D 16L in their last 49 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.25 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Udinese or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Atalanta in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Jan 2022, when Atalanta won Udinese 2-6 Atalanta.
Udinese's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
6
Draws
3
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Atalanta H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Atalanta?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 1, Atalanta have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Atalanta last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Atalanta 2-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 58%, Atalanta 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Udinese) and 50% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Atalanta Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Atalanta matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Udinese's recent matches and 50% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Udinese and Atalanta matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Udinese's recent games and 50% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Atalanta matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Udinese's recent matches and 75% of Atalanta's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Atalanta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Atalanta finished level at 1-1 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.11 xG and Atalanta 1.67 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Atalanta attack 1.25 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 25% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 51%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 45%, Atalanta 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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