Udinese 1-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Atalanta at Bluenergy Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 2W 4D 4L at Bluenergy Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atalanta stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atalanta — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Udinese, 1 for Atalanta and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Udinese trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Atalanta trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 51% versus Atalanta 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 45% | Atalanta 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.11 xG and Atalanta 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.817 / defence 1.129 | Atalanta attack 1.253 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.182. Atalanta have an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Udinese games / 49 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 25% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 51%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Atalanta 1.96. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 30% | Atalanta 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 25% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Udinese 1.11 / Atalanta 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.817 / def 1.129 | Atalanta attack 1.253 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Atalanta xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Atalanta kick off?
Udinese vs Atalanta kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Atalanta?
Udinese 1 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is Udinese vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Atalanta part of?
Udinese vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 25% chance of winning, Atalanta a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Udinese and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Atalanta?
Record (4 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 3 | Atalanta 1W.
What form are Udinese and Atalanta in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Atalanta (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.82) and Atalanta's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
25%
3.97
24%
4.12
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.78
1.67
Atalanta xG
3.97
25%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
5%
21.13
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.4 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Udinese and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Udinese and 1.67 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese's recent record stands at 12W 20D 17L from 49 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 25W 8D 16L across 49 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 6W 12D 6L from 24 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atalanta's away record stands at 11W 4D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.73 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 12W 20D 17L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 25W 8D 16L in their last 49 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.25 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Udinese or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Atalanta in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Atalanta runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Atalanta won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
6
Draws
3
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Atalanta have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Atalanta 2-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 58%, Atalanta 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Udinese) and 50% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Udinese's recent matches and 50% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Udinese's recent games and 50% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Atalanta tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Atalanta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Atalanta finished level at 1-1 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.11 xG and Atalanta 1.67 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Atalanta attack 1.25 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 25% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 51%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 45%, Atalanta 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.