AS Roma vs Torino – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Torino.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 7 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Torino (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Torino have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Torino have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in AS Roma's favour (2.50 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 10 previous meetings, AS Roma are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 2–0 with AS Roma winning.
The historical record gives AS Roma a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 32% versus Torino 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 40% | Torino 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.00 xG and Torino 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.453 / defence 0.739 | Torino attack 0.899 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 AS Roma games / 40 Torino games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 65% | Draw 21% | Torino 14%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Torino 7.14. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Torino 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 65% | Draw 21% | Torino 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 48% | xG AS Roma 2.00 / Torino 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.453 / def 0.739 | Torino attack 0.899 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Torino xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Torino kick off?
AS Roma vs Torino is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Stadio Olimpico.
Where is AS Roma vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Torino part of?
AS Roma vs Torino is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 65% chance of winning, Torino a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AS Roma and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Torino?
Record (10 meetings): AS Roma 7W | Draws 2 | Torino 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Torino in?
AS Roma (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Torino (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.90x) against AS Roma's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
65%
1.54
21%
4.87
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.82
0.82
Torino xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
2%
51.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.82 for Torino, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Torino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 25W 4D 11L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Torino's form line: 12W 9D 19L from 40 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Torino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torino.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.25 PPG from 20 outings (14W 3D 3L).
On the road, Torino have gone 4W 5D 11L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.15 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Torino
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Torino in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 25W 4D 11L in their last 40 games (1.98 PPG), while Torino have gone 12W 9D 19L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Torino away?
AS Roma's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.25 PPG; Torino away: 0.85 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Torino in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 0-3 on 20 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AS Roma
2
Draws
1
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 7, Torino have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Torino?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (AS Roma) and 40% (Torino) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (AS Roma) and 60% (Torino).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Torino in 35%; Torino in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of AS Roma's recent matches and 40% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of AS Roma's recent games and 60% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Torino tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Torino in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.