Monza vs AS Roma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Monza face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monza and AS Roma meet at in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 January 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Monza's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Monza have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monza at this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Monza are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AS Roma arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, AS Roma have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Monza's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2025, ended 0–4 with AS Roma winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 56% versus AS Roma 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 53% | AS Roma 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 0.88 xG and AS Roma 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.930 / defence 1.210 | AS Roma attack 1.154 / defence 0.657. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.657 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 6 Monza games / 45 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 19% | Draw 24% | AS Roma 57%. Fair-value odds: Monza 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | AS Roma 1.75. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Monza 50% | AS Roma 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 19% | Draw 24% | AS Roma 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Monza 0.88 / AS Roma 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.930 / def 1.210 | AS Roma attack 1.154 / def 0.657 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.73
AS Roma xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs AS Roma kick off?
Monza vs AS Roma is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 31 January 2027.
What competition is Monza vs AS Roma part of?
Monza vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 19% chance of winning, AS Roma a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Monza and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and AS Roma?
Record (6 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 4W.
What form are Monza and AS Roma in?
Monza (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. AS Roma (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.93x the league average against AS Roma's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.15x) against Monza's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 6/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
19%
5.28
24%
4.24
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Monza xG
Total xG
2.61
1.73
AS Roma xG
5.28
19%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
3%
29.84
24%
4.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.7 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Monza and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Monza and 1.73 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Monza's recent record stands at 24W 11D 10L from 45 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 28W 6D 11L across 45 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for Monza against 2.00 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Monza have managed 15W 4D 3L from 22 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 12W 2D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monza are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.67 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; AS Roma in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 24W 11D 10L in their last 45 games (1.84 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 28W 6D 11L in their last 45 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or AS Roma away?
Monza's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.23 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Monza or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, AS Roma in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 4-0 on 24 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Monza
2
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and AS Roma?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 0, AS Roma have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2025, when AS Roma 4-0 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 54%, AS Roma 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Monza) and 41% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; AS Roma in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Monza's recent matches and 36% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Monza's recent games and 41% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and AS Roma tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.